Published on October 17, 2008 By Artysim In Politics

We keep hearing about the bailout plan and how we need to "re-capitalize" big banks to make everything better. I can't help but stand back, and look at the fact that the reality on the ground is being ignored;

1 in 6 homes are currently underwater. This means that the amount owed on the mortgage is greater than what the home could be sold for.

Average consumer is tapped out, between car loans, home loans, student loans and credit cards the average joe has been living beyond his means for years now and can no longer continue to.

The "financialization" of the economy is starting to unwind and things will revert to their actual value as opposed to their percieved value. What the heck does this mean? It means that ultimately, the true value of an economy is in goods produced or, services rendered. Widgets built at a factory or a dentist pulling a tooth. This is what is called the "real" economy vs the "financial" economy which is for lack of a better word a fairytale that seeks to avoid what has been called the tyranny of reality. But more on that in a moment.

What's been hapenning over the last 20 to 30 odd years is that the economy in N. America has progressively gotten out of the business of actually building things. Most manufacturing has been moved offshore.

Stardock, to their credit, is still in the business of widget-making. Granted, it's software, but still an actual product that's packaged (physically or electronically) and sold. And good on 'em.

But in the bigger picture, the engine of the U.S economy has been moved from the factory to the shopping mall. Consumer spending makes up 70% of GDP and most of the jobs in the economy, by and large, have been in the "services rendered" category. To make up the difference in wages vs inflation (adjusted for inflation average wages have fallen since the 1970's) we've had credit hocked to us as the solution.

Recapitalizing the banks just means that they will have the means to continue our dependency on credit and debt. This means they will continue to try and use debt and it's interest rates as their means of "wealth creation"

But, it won't affect some of the root problems:

It won't create more jobs. It won't bring manufacturing back into the country. It won't solve the fact that 70% of GDP is dependent on a resource that's tapped out (consumers) and it won't stop foreclosures and defaults on mortgages, which will push more and more houses underwater. In effect, it will allow them to continue ignoring reality.


Comments
on Oct 17, 2008

My thoughts exactly.  Our entire economy needs a major correction, that is part of what is happening now if the government would just get the hell out of the way and let it happen.  We need to return to a time when people, myself included, actually saved money up to make big purchases rather than putting it on a credit card and paying it off later.  We need to return to a time when we lived within our means and stopped spending just to keep up with the neighbors.  It's going to be a tough change but until that change happens things are only going to get worse, and the more the government tries to stick their noses in where they don't belong it is only going to make the pain last longer.

on Oct 17, 2008

I find myself agreeing with the thrust of your article.

on Oct 17, 2008

I am curious of your 16.7% figure and would like to see where you got it from.

And I would agree with your article if the world was headed towards a cataclysm never before seen in recorded history.  Barring that, I dont think the service sector is going to colapse.  They are still selling real products - like Stardock - that just do not happen to be what would be considered traditional hardware.

on Oct 17, 2008

Like everyone else, I too agree with the premise of the article. But if we look at why things are the way they are, in part the Gov't is to blame but the people themselves asked for this. Many people in this country took the concept of "the American Dream" and twisted its meaning but making it seem that meant having all the latest gadgets, technologies, cars and large homes. While there were some who were capable of acquiring these things, those who couldn't wanted them anyways. Those who were able to start businesses figured they could profit from this need and began to offer these products to the people, realizing home made products would cost a lot of money and people would be more inclined to purchase products that were cheaper, they sent this productions overseas allowing for businesses to sell products at a much lower price so that those who could not afford them before, could now.

I remember at one point in time when seeing a person with a cell phone meant they had tons of money. Having more than 1 TV meant they were rich, and having a new car as your first car was luck of having rich parents. Now even 7 year olds have cells, HD is suppose to be the norm, flat screens are a must, and used cars are usually purchased so that the kids can have new cars.

This is the reason this system has failed. Because those who could not afford a higher life wanted it and those who wanted to afford the higher life gave it to those who couldn't afford it and now they both screwed.

on Oct 18, 2008

This is the reason this system has failed. Because those who could not afford a higher life wanted it and those who wanted to afford the higher life gave it to those who couldn't afford it and now they both screwed.

This is one of those times where it's nice to not be a democrat at heart. I've never considered the majority of people to be particularly savvy when it comes to politics. In my view it's the duty of the strong to lead the weak into the light. But recently there's been a much stronger tradition of raping the weak and making good use of well-documented weaknesses (read any psychology 101 or marketing 101 textbook for some examples) to persuade the dumb, the financially incompetent and the naive to do some very stupid things.

Persuading them to get into credit is just one of these things.

Now I know that as a thoroughly modern citizen of the world I should believe with all my heart in personal responsibility and the wholesome ability of everybody to be their own lookout, but I'm afraid I think that when the tools for manipulation are as sophisticated and as expertly wielded as they are today, unwitting dupes are to be pitied more than blamed for their weakness.

After all, they only acted as the strong knew they would. Who's to blame for the loss of a flock? The shepherd, or the sheep? People are hardly goats; strong wills and sharp minds are even rarer than common sense. When human weakness is manipulated for selfish goals, disaster is the result. But is it just to blame those who were expertly manipulated? I don't think so, and I encourage you to think why you agree or disagree.

on Oct 18, 2008

Have ya ever had a hangover Arty? Well the way I see it that's what we're doin' now. And the only real cure for it is suffering through it and time. But then... some folks will swear that if you keep drinking you can put off the hangover too -but trust me! That only works to a point.