Published on September 17, 2008 By Artysim In Politics

Did you know?

The Great Depression didn't happen over night. The history books state that it started in 1929 but it took a few years for things to get really bad. Today, it's been just over a year since the near collapse of Bear Stearns (who is now dead) that has signalled the start of the the bad times the economy has been going through. Nevermind that this was predicted years in advance with the Fed encouraging bubble after bubble after bubble and transparency now nonexistent through deregulation in the market.

Did you know?

Since August 2007 the Federal Reserve has gone through almost 80% of their balance sheet trying to keep the market floating. How much are we talking in dollars? Approximately 800 billion. If you've been following what's been going on in the economy, since August of 2007 several major investment banks and firms have gone under. Each time they've done so, the Fed's solution has been

1) Lower interest rates at which money is loaned.

2) Inject 'liquidity' into the system. Liquidity is a fancy term for money.

So, with all the trouble going on in the economy, the solution the Fed used was to artificially (and unsustainably) cheapen the cost of doing business AND throw money at the problem. The almost 800 billion dollars that has been thrown at the problem, will ultimately be paid for by U.S taxpayers. This money, paid for by yourselves and your children, has gone to one of the biggest cases of corporate welfare in the history of the U.S. It's been loaned out so failing banks could keep running. Well they failed anyways, all it did was delay the inevitable for a little while. It's been used to finance 'buyout' deals in which a still surviving bank would buy a dying one for pennies on the dollar, which still required billions. The most recent use of some of this money was an 85-billion dollar deal in which the Fed will now have an 80% controlling share of AIG. Before that they pumped 70 billion into the market after monday's pandemonium with the death of Lehman Brothers.

Did you know?

None of it has worked. The Fed has thrown money at the problem, which has only staved off the inevitable for a short time. And the truth is, there's not too much they can do anymore. They've only got around 200 billion left to play with (just over a year ago they had approx. 1 trillion) so if things continue at present the Fed can only step in to bail out and buy out and inject money for a few more months, maybe. Furthermore the question is SHOULD the Fed be doing this? Remember, in the end this is money that in one way shape or form will be payed by YOU, the taxpayer of the great United States of America, and it's money that's essentially been thrown to the wind. Also remember their title- Federal RESERVE. Emphasis on the word RESERVE. Once their remaining capital is gone, the word 'reserve' should be removed from their title.

The real reason why things haven't gotten better is that this isn't some blip on the radar, or part of the natural boom bust cycle. I'm all for capitalism, but what we have today is not that. We have now invented Casino Capitalism. This is Enron writ large people. We've removed regulation and oversight of the economy. Banks were left to police themselves, and so they made up numbers and cooked the books. Don't believe me? Try and find out how much capital the big banks have, vs their debts.... the truth is even they don't know. They don't know themselves where they sit because they've spent years cooking the books to turn toxic debt into fake nonexistent money that they invested in the marketplace. They spent years getting away from 'asset heavy' ventures to find ways to turn hypothetical, nonexistent money into even more hypothetical nonexistent money.

We've gotten away from the meat and potatoes of capitalism, in which tangible goods and services are the source of revenue and profit and instead we've replaced them with the fancy and unsustainable idea called 'wealth creation' in which money trades hands to create more money, magically, with no real products or services traded.

At the root of everything, however, there must be something physical. Some tangible asset, good or service. For years, that asset has been housing. The banks took the value of a home, grossly inflated it hypothetically, then used it as collateral for all kinds of monkey business. Now that trouble has arisen with that collateral, the house of cards they've built is falling down. And we're the ones who are paying for it.

Did you know?

The Government has done nothing. At this point, Bernanke and Paulson are more akin to the real president and vice president of the nation. The Supreme Court has done nothing, when they should be stepping in cracking heads with criminal investigations. Why should they be doing this? Because there is no longer transparency in the market. If there's no transparency, folks and businesses (especially foreigners who unbeknownst to most Americans have been financing your 1 trillion dollar VISA bill adventure in Iraq and Afghanistan) lose confidence. If investors lose confidence in a market, they pull their money. When you have no transparency, no confidence in a market, what do you get?

A Casino! Welcome to Casino U.S.A. Want to buy into Mutual Funds or a 401K plan? Step right up, your choice of Roulette, Black Jack, or if you're very well moneyed there's always poker. It's a little more fair if you know what you're doing. For all the little folks, there's the slots! This is the kind of market you'll have to live with- no oversight, no transparency, no accountability. Average working folks can invest their money and it's a crapshoot what happens after that. And the house always wins (as proven by the 800 billion dollar taxpayer bailout of your PUBLIC money going into PRIVATE banks hands)

It wasn't always this way. Back when the market had accountability and transparency folks could confidently make an investment if they'd done their homework and conducted proper research. Yes, there always have been failures and unexpected disapointments. But for the most part, with accountability and transparency and investor could usually know if they were getting into risky business.

Did you know?

There is one person who started cracking heads and asking uncomfortable questions. His name is Elliot Spitzer, you may remember him as the disgraced former Governor of New York who was ousted after he was caught in a liason with a prostitute. The news media covered it as a typical major corrupt politician scandal, but left out the fact that he had Wall Street running scared. He started asking the tough questions and had the clout to actually start getting answers. Many folks don't know that there were many sighs of relief in the boardrooms of major banks when Spitzer went down. Now I'm not defending the man, but isn't it convenient that just as he was putting the banks on the hot seat, suddenly his dirty little secret (which had been ongoing for years) suddenly took him out of the picture?

Did you know?

This article has gone on way too long and I'm sure you're beyond annoyed with my dumb little 'did you know?' gimmick. Thank you for taking the time to read, and let me leave you with this unsettling tidbit-

Both of the presidential candidates, McCain and Obama, have no real plan to deal with this. They've both made speeches that roughly say "there are problems with the economy, we'll rally and fix them, we'll cut taxes at some point to try and make things better, go U.S.A!!"

They have no clue what to do. Cutting taxes won't fix a systemic problem. It doesn't even address the problem. And I highly doubt that either of them will take the banks to task and ask the tough questions that need to be asked. Saddly, this will probably degenerate into some childish democrat vs. republican pissing contest of finger pointing. Ultimately, I doubt neither candidate will do much to fix this because it's become abundantly clear that the banks and major business interests are far more important than you, the taxpayer.

Welcome to Casino U.S.A. The house always wins.


Comments
on Sep 17, 2008

Yowsers! Dow is down almost 300 points as of noon today. Workers at many major investment firms have been working 20 hour days to try and figure out how much capital their companies have or don't have through complicated deals. MSNBC has a wonderful article here


http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/poof-there-goes-an-american-dream.aspx

Here's one of the highlights:

a credit derivatives expert based in Australia, told me in a phone interview Monday from Singapore that these events have "essentially destroyed the capacity of the banking system to provide funding to businesses." He added: "Investment banks have destroyed their capital by making foolish loans on a massive scale, and the chance that they will get new capital, as they did back in the spring, is low. If you are a sovereign wealth fund and give new money to Wall Street now, you look like a chump. They won't be sugar daddies anymore. It won't fly politically at home. It isn't going to happen."

So who's going to refill the capital well? You may have heard that money does not grow on trees, and neither can countries actually "print" money, since that actually involves the sale of new bonds at a time when the market is flooded with them.

Well, U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve officials have urged American banks to pool together a $70 billion fund to bail out weaker members of their tribe. But Das scoffed at the effort as a nonstarter, considering they are all equally desperate to hold on to their capital: "It's like the deaf . . . volunteering to help the blind," he said.

So you can see why stock markets are suffering. The credit engine that has fueled the planet's economic growth is now kaput, as banks and governments have downshifted from risk-taking mode into survival mode. The only hope now is that the unraveling will not accelerate and become an uncontrolled spiral into the ground.

"The European Central Bank and U.S. Federal Reserve have held international financing together with chicken wire and hope, and only now are people seeing how fragile it has been for years," Das said. "As the contraction of credit feeds out into the real economy, business expansion will grind to a halt, unemployment will soar, and consumer spending will falter -- all of which leads, in turn, to lower production and more unemployment."

2 games in 1

Almost a year ago to the day, as Bear Stearns' hedge funds were first unraveling and banks were about to start announcing billion-dollar write-downs, Das told me in this column that the credit crisis had not even reached the first inning and that the deleveraging process would be a prolonged event.

 

Now he thinks the financial part of the game is in the fifth inning, as it has raced toward the inevitable conclusion of large-company bankruptcies faster than he expected. There are only so many major institutions that can go under, after all, and already two are dead, and two more are on the brink.

 

 

on Sep 17, 2008

Both of the presidential candidates, McCain and Obama, have no real plan to deal with this. They've both made speeches that roughly say "there are problems with the economy, we'll rally and fix them, we'll cut taxes at some point to try and make things better, go U.S.A!!"

Generic-off!!!

~Zoo

on Sep 19, 2008

Is it just that US politics are so fascinating or that foreigners just don't care enough about their own governments/situations that they feel a need to be involved, in some small way, with the US process? Just curious.

on Sep 20, 2008

The almost 800 billion dollars that has been thrown at the problem, will ultimately be paid for by U.S taxpayers

Well the final bill to taxpayers will be far below that, since it's effectively a loan. That is, the government is (from what I understand) offering up to 800 billion dollars to buy assets ('toxic' loans) from other companies. Then when things have stabilised presumably they'll look to sell them on. So they will reclaim some of that money from the loan repayments themselves, and some of it when they sell them on - they could even make a profit (although it's pretty unlikely)

A Casino! Welcome to Casino U.S.A. Want to buy into Mutual Funds or a 401K plan? Step right up, your choice of Roulette, Black Jack, or if you're very well moneyed there's always poker. It's a little more fair if you know what you're doing. For all the little folks, there's the slots! This is the kind of market you'll have to live with

The only thing is the market has always been like a casino, only with better odds. That is, you gain more rewards (on average) the riskier the investments you make. In fact the problem with the current crisis (apart from the issue of mind boggingly poorly designed contracts for workers) is that the risk element seems to have largely been forgotten about, and high returns (on high risk 'products') were thoguht of as relatively safe. Sadly with the bailing out of any institution that miserably failed to undertake a proper risk assessment (and of course the failure of the main rating agencies themselves) you have a far far worse situation than a casino - you have almost a free casino, where if you win at blackjack you get to keep your money+winnings, but if you lose, the government foots your bill for you. I would agree with you however that things were much better before when it was easier to guage what the risky areas were, since transparancy and reliability/accuracy of information are imperative for investors. When you can no longer be confident that a companies balance sheet really is accurate with it's valuations (within a relatively small margin) you start having major problems.

 


Is it just that US politics are so fascinating or that foreigners just don't care enough about their own governments/situations that they feel a need to be involved, in some small way, with the US process?

What happens in the US can have major repercussions for the rest of the world. For example if you happen to be a dictator in an oil rich country neighbouring Iran and Syria, or if you're reliant on the US for much of your trade, or if in this globalised world many companies that operate in your country are based in the US, etc.

on Sep 22, 2008

What happens in the US can have major repercussions for the rest of the world

Sure, sure I know that, and I also like to see others opinions concerning the US, but that doesn't answer my question. I guess it boils down to "do you think the US will solve its issues on its own or should rely on world opinion for the answers".  It's all interesting stuff, especially since I see little to no discussion on other nations leaders and politics. I was just wondering if people don't know, don't care, or are indifferent to the world outside the US. IMO I see a lot of passion on US issues (on JU) from non-US citizens, but little spent on their own countries and issue that more directly affect them. And then those of us that are that are from the US can shower our opinions and help solve others dilemmas. 

on Sep 22, 2008

Well the final bill to taxpayers will be far below that

My bet is that the final bill will be far more than that. They are going to pay much more for the illiquid assets than others were willing to pay. The real estate market has atleast 2 more years to the bottom and all the while the derivatives the govt are going to buy will simply become more and more worthless.The 700 billion is also just an estimate...something tells me this administration is not very good at estimates.

This is a bad scheme they are trying to pull off.  They are just trying delay the inevitable. Wall St. blew away investor confidence and until steps are taken to fix that they are not going to change a thing.

on Sep 23, 2008

It's all interesting stuff, especially since I see little to no discussion on other nations leaders and politics. I was just wondering if people don't know, don't care, or are indifferent to the world outside the US. IMO I see a lot of passion on US issues (on JU) from non-US citizens, but little spent on their own countries and issue that more directly affect them. And then those of us that are that are from the US can shower our opinions and help solve others dilemmas.

Well, JU is a site that is pretty much American for the most part. When I do talk about my great country of canuckistan (we are number 1 producer of potassium, ALL other nations are inferior in their production of potassium!!) there's no real discussion. About the only person who will post on an article about Canada is Dr. Guy cause he's a nice guy to begin with!

on Sep 23, 2008

about Canada
Btw, Pickens cry that seven hundred millions are sent to countries that hate us is absurd because Canada receives two-thirds of that  oil revenue.

on Sep 23, 2008

It wasn't always this way. Back when the market had accountability and transparency folks could confidently make an investment if they'd done their homework and conducted proper research. Yes, there always have been failures and unexpected disapointments. But for the most part, with accountability and transparency and investor could usually know if they were getting into risky business.
An argument for a return to regulation.

on Sep 23, 2008

An argument for a return to regulation.

Some folks are giving people 700 billion reasons for improved regulation.