Is the Surge really working?

Although I am an unabashed liberal, I would like to ask the fine folks here to consider this article without political bias. I could care less whether a republican or democratic president was responsible for giving the order to go into Iraq. History does have a habit of repeating itself- so with that in mind I'm going to go ahead and ask if the surge is really working, considering previous occupations and how they ended... first, a little history.

Back in january 1968, the North Vietnamese launched a massive offensive in concert with their irregular elements against South Vietnam and major U.S bases in country. Militarily, this offensive was a complete defeat for the north and a victory for the U.S and South Vietnamese. Politically it was a massive victory for the north (albeit unintentional by their own admission) and was a major turning point in the war- many Americans realized that the war would not end soon and the boys definitely would not be home by Christmas.

While the northern leadership was actually quite dismayed by their failure (the true goal was to spur a mass uprising in the south that would overthrow the government of the day) It also shocked the Americans, both civillian and military. While strategic planners and intel knew beforehand that the north was planning something big, they did not believe that the north could field such a large scale operation. On the tactical level execution was poor, many objectives were based on outdated or sketchy intel and small unit actions were poorly co-ordinated, further contributing to the failure of northern forces. At the end of the day though, while they failed in their objectives they still succeeded in mounting attacks against major U.S bases and headquarters and even succeeded in getting a 19 man sapper team onto the grounds of the U.S embassy in Saigon.

This failed action sent the message that the other team was still fully capable of playing ball and was far from beaten. U.S forces remained in country several more years until they withdrew with the understanding that they would continue to offer air support, intel and advisors. We all know how that went.

So, what does this have to do with Iraq? For the last year (well almost) we have been hearing about how stability is slowly returning to Iraq. Attacks are down, sectarian violence is down, and even many Sunni groups are now working in tandem with Americans and the Iraqi Gov to kick out AQ. And good on' em.

By all appearances, until last week the surge has had the appearance of working quite well. What isn't talked about too openly though is that the drop in violence has been largely due to many  insurgents agreeing not to attack coalition forces. This does not mean that they have turned in their rifles or had a change of heart.

The last couple of weeks have brought to light just how illusory these "gains" really are. When Maliki decided to go into Basra and crack down on some of Sadr's boys, all bets were off... the Green Zone was shelled for several days, resulting in several casualties. Clashes broke out in several cities, and 11 U.S service personnel have been killed since sunday.

Despite U.S and U.K air support, the government attempt to take Basra was an utter failure. Maliki headed there to personally oversee operations but had to be rescued by U.S airlift when militia fighters got too close to his headquarters. That, and an estimated 1000 members of the Iraqi army and police have either defected to the militia they were supposed to stamp out, or simply refused to fight. Now that more than a week has passed, Sadr's militia is stronger than before the failed government attempt to take Basra. Public sentiment, while polarized, is siding more with Sadr as he is being seen as a fighter of the occupation, as opposed to the government who is seen as more of a puppet of the Americans.

With the fact that there remain tens of thousands of well armed, experienced combatants in Iraq who do not share any love for the U.S, I cannot help but wonder when the Iraqi version of Tet will come. The last few weeks should serve as a clear warning sign that the other team is still on the playing field, and they can still play ball. Just because some of the factions have temporarily reigned in their actions, does not mean that they are toothless. If anything, the surge has been a perfect opportunity for many of these groups to re-group and re-arm. It is because of this that I would like to say I do not think the Surge is actually working. It has the appearance of working on the outside, but deep down the U.S will never be able to leave Iraq victoriously.