Sooner or later the war in Iraq is going to end. I think everyone from all political persuasions can at least agree that at some point, the majority of U.S service personnel will leave the country and come back home. The reasons for coming home however may turn out to be far different than many folks think.

When the troops come home, it will not be because of political or military victory. If those do occur it will be counted as an additional bonus and if victory hasn't been achieved than it will be artificially created in the media. Probably by stating that the Iraqi gov is able to stand on it's own, similar to the situation in Vietnam in the years following the withdrawal of the bulk of U.S forces from the country.

But this article really isn't about whether or not the U.S will be victorious in Iraq. It is about why it will, at some point ultimately leave. It think it will not end because of insurgent attacks or political maneuvering. It will not end if a democratic president takes office. It will end because of the state of the U.S economy.

Once again, let me state this article is not about politics. I really don't give a damn about republican or democratic pissing contests and think most of it is a smoke screen for some very serious systemic problems. Whichever president takes office next year is going to be walking into a big mess. Quite simply the U.S is not going to able to afford spending 12 billion per month, entirely on credit, just adding to the national debt, to maintain their present operations in Iraq.

Look at this in terms of dollars and sense-

Inflation is running rampant- the U.S dollar continues to sink vs other world currencies at an alarming rate.

Cost of oil is over 100 dollars per barrel. Most folks only equate this to how much they will have to pay at the pump but don't consider how dependent farming and industrial capacity are on petroleum. As cost of oil goes up, so does your food and most commodities. Converting lotsa corn to ethanol is only going to make cost of food go higher too.

Banking sector is in BIG trouble, every few days releasing further write-downs in chunks of a few billion here and there. They are doing this to try and trickle out the bad news instead of let loose a flood, the truth being that they have lost a TON of money and will be forced to pass on the costs to the U.S consumer in an attempt to stay solvent.

Due to inflation and overall state of the economy, basic costs of living, food and fuel continue to go up. Wages are not rising to match the rate of inflation by any means. Majority of the U.S GDP is consumer based. Average consumer is getting hammered and the bad times are just starting. Much of the economic "growth" of the last few years was due to folks using their houses as ATM machines by refinancing their mortgages. The party days of cheap credit are now coming to a close and folks won't be able to do this anymore.

Fed keeps dropping interest rates to try and get folks to borrow money and keep liquidity in the system. Rate is now dropped to 3 % and things are still looking pretty dicey. The lower it drops, the more inflation we risk, and if it hits 0 and things don't improve the fed would have to start paying people to borrow money.

And of course there's the subprime housing issue, which is interconnected to some of the points I've mentioned above.

This relates to Iraq because Iraq is very, very expensive and not one nickel has actually gone to pay for it- the entire thing has essentially been payed for on the biggest VISA bill in history. The U.S national debt is now over 9 trillion dollars, and every month the U.S gov pays out 12 billion just for military expenses in Iraq alone. This figure doesn't include all of the related costs like re-furbishing and re-equipping units when they return home, healthcare and disabilities for vets and the like. Those "associated" costs push the 12 billion per month mark much higher. Once all the troops do come home, no one is able to say just how much it will cost to get the U.S military back up to pre-war condition. Years of combat deployments in the desert has wreaked havoc on lots of gear and getting it all back up to snuff once things are said and done will be in the tens or hundreds of billions to repair and replace.

Once the decision is made to leave, it will cost billions more to leave- heavy equipment transferred, the final 3 or 4 major bases the U.S plans to leave in country will need to be finalized into the permanent mega-bases they were planned to be, and of course final payments made to all the contractors... 1 in 3 U.S personnel in Iraq is currently a contractor, a fact little publicized.

With the brewing economic troubles at home, this kind of fiscal expenditure will come under increased scrutiny. If the decision is made to keep troops in country, then public programs, social security and the like will need to be cut to continue paying for the war, or massive cuts will need to be made in other areas of the defense budget.

This is a question I would like to pose to JU: How will the U.S continue to pay for the war in Iraq?

In my mind I see a couple of possibilities:

1) Close some foreign bases and installations. The U.S has hundreds of bases in foreign countries around the world costing billions per year to operate and maintain. It is possible that many of these will be closed down to continue footing the bill. However the U.S doesn't like to leave a possible strategic installation unless absolutely necessary (U.S facilities in Okinawa and South Korea, for example, would probably not be shut down to continue paying for Iraq)

2) Cut back on aquisition of big ticket defense items... this means reducing spending on things like nuclear subs and the missile shield. While these items will be necessary in "the next war" against another superpower, they have little impact on urban style combat. This decision would be hugely unpopular with the defense industry that has extensive lobbying in washington, and many strategic think-tanks who see the U.S as quietly ramping up to take on China and a revitalized Russia in the not so distant future

3) Cut back on social programs at home- namely healthcare, social security, and education. This wouldn't be passed off as "cuts" so much as "privatization" of these assets- more charter schools, etc. Considering the state that many consumers at home will find themselves in, it will not be a popular decision with many folks. Justifying reduced spending at home to continue spending for a conflict entering it's 6th year (will be at this point next year) will be a hard sell.

4) Raise Taxes! This one will be very unpopular with everyone across the board.

5) Renege on the U.S debt. This would essentially be the U.S telling the world "we're not gonna pay" this would have drastic, drastic consequences across the board, and would basically require the U.S to start or precipitate a major war in a last ditch attempt to maintain super power status. If they reneged on the debt and didn't flex their military muscle as a show of force to the world, things at home would get really bad really fast economically.